Kilkenny and South East most at risk in no-deal Brexit
By COLIN BARTLEY
UP TO 100,000 jobs are at risk in the event of a no-deal Brexit, and the South East region is particularly vulnerable.
The high reliance on the food and agriculture industry in the South East, the sectors most vulnerable to exposure due to a no-deal scenario, could see the region affected the most.
That’s according to the quarterly bulletin released this week by the Central Bank which said a no-deal scenario would see ‘a significant weakening’ in many sectors of the economy.
The South East’s agriculture and food sectors rely heavily on exporting goods, and the possible introduction of tariffs with the UK, as well as the delay moving goods into the UK due to customs could seriously undermine the local economy.
The doomsday scenario predicted by the Central Bank sees the economy growing by just 0.7% in 2020 in the case of a no-deal Brexit, as opposed to 4.1% if a deal is reached.
The bulletin also predicts there could be 34,000 job losses in 2020 alone and 100,000 in the medium term.
Mark Cassidy, the Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank said it’s hard to predict how the economy will react given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
“Given the unprecedented nature of Brexit and the uncertainties in the international trading environment,” Mr Cassidy said, “there is considerable uncertainty around potential outcomes.”
“The uncertainties around Brexit and managing the risk of overheating increase both the challenge and importance of charting the appropriate fiscal policy path.
“With output at or close to potential, a tighter fiscal policy would help to manage demand pressures and reduce the risk of overheating and a return to boom-bust type conditions.
“On the other hand, if a disorderly Brexit were to occur, there would be a material deterioration in the public finances and the fiscal environment would be significantly more challenging.”